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“Success in trading comes from the discipline to stick to your plan, the obsession with managing risk first, and the strategy to capitalize on what the market gives you.”

— Inspired by Paul Tudor Jones

portfolios included

Quantitative Portfolio

Portfolio Performance (since Aug 2006): 8,724% | S&P 500 Performance: 340%

27.80% average annual return (as of Apr 02, 2025).

Max historical monthly drawdown = -15%.

All years positive, including 2008 subprime crisis.

No emotions, 100% quantitative. Sharpe Ratio of 1.51 vs 0.51 for the S&P 500.

Our algorithm integrates macroeconomic, fundamental, momentum, and sentiment analysis alongside robust risk management protocols.

Trades only the 3x bull SPY and QQQ ETFs (SPXL and TQQQ) and their inverse (SPXS and SQQQ).

Our email alerts are user-friendly, averaging three per month for necessary portfolio rebalancing.

Risk Management Models

Portfolio Performance (since Jan/2008): 1,285% | S&P 500 Performance: 280%

*As of Apr 14, 2025

This portfolio is built around our risk management models’ allocations. We use 5 risk management models:

1 – Risk On/Off Main Model (30% weight)

2 – Yield Curve Model (20% weight)

3 – Weekly Momentum Model (20% weight)

4 – Monthly Momentum Model (10% weight)

5 – Credit Spread and Volatility Model (20% weight)

In addition, we incorporate 2 proprietary oscillators:

i3 US Equities Oscillator.

Major Bottom Monthly Oscillator.

This portfolio delivers an exceptional risk-adjusted return, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.06 and a maximum weekly drawdown of -16.32%, compared to the S&P 500’s -56% max drawdown.

The weekly and monthly momentum models shift to cash during risk-off signals, while the other models short the market through inverse ETFs.

The portfolio trades only SPY, QQQ, their respective inverse ETFs, and cash (TBIL).

Relatively straightforward to follow and easy to execute.

E-mail alerts will be sent whenever there is a shift in any risk management model.

Essential Indicators

Portfolio Performance (since Jan/2008): 440% | S&P 500 Performance: 280%

*Updated as of Apr 14, 2025

This portfolio is built around a selection of what we believe are the essential market indicators. We have adapted them based on our expertise to determine when to trigger a long equities position or shift to cash.

Below are the essential indicators that form the foundation of this portfolio:

1 – Options – Small Speculators vs Large Investors Allocation Spread

2 – SPX/High Yield Spread Weekly Ratio Slope

3 – NYSE – New High vs New Lows Cumulative Index

4 – High Yield Bond A/D Index MA Cross

5 – Credit Default Swap – Long Equities / Cash

6 – US Equities Industries Above 200 DMA

This portfolio also delivers an exceptional risk-adjusted return, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.02 and a maximum weekly drawdown of -14.27%, compared to the S&P 500’s -56% max drawdown.

It trades only SPY, its inverse ETF (SH), and cash (TBIL).

It has a medium effort to follow.

SPX, Gold and Cash - Momentum

Portfolio Performance (since Jan/1971): 35,333% | S&P 500 Performance: 5,991%

This portfolio is entirely based on price action for the S&P 500 and Gold, with the primary goal of adhering strictly to momentum patterns, independent of macroeconomic and fundamental factors. We increase our exposure as long as the S&P 500 and Gold are trending higher, primarily focusing on the monthly timeframe.

The S&P 500 portion of the portfolio has a maximum allocation of 70% and is divided into five sub-strategies, while Gold has a maximum allocation of 30%, divided into two sub-strategies.

Notably, we use 3x leveraged ETFs for the S&P 500 portion to optimize returns through cash investments. Since we only trade the index when it’s trending higher, we avoid the negative compounding effects typically associated with leveraged ETFs in declining markets.

While it’s possible to be 100% in cash at times, this is rare. The portfolio starts in 1971, delivering an annualized average return of 11.43% compared to 7.87% for the S&P 500 (last update Apr 02, 2025). This return does not account for taxes on monthly cash coupons (e.g., T-bills).

The risk-adjusted return significantly outperforms the benchmark, particularly due to the strategy’s ability to avoid drawdowns by staying in cash during bear markets and crashes. For example, in 1971, when the S&P 500 declined by about 43%, this portfolio posted gains due to its Gold exposure.

During the dot-com and subprime crises, the portfolio experienced less than a 10% drawdown, while the S&P 500 fell by over 50% in both instances, thanks to its high cash exposure.

The maximum monthly drawdown for this portfolio was 13.9%, occurring shortly after the October 1987 crash.

The alerts are easy to follow, as this portfolio has a long-term horizon and requires minimal rebalancing within a single month.

Nasdaq Stars Low Volatility

Portfolio Performance (since Dec/2016): 172.36% | S&P 500 Performance: 133.75%

12.82% annual average return since Dec/2016 (as of Apr 14 2025).

Max daily drawdown of -13.04% vs -34% for the S&P 500.

Sharpe Ratio of 1.24.

This portfolio is considered low-volatility primarily due to a mix of cash allocation, breakout stock selection, and the use of trailing stop losses — not because of the volatility of individual stocks themselves.

Regarding stock selection, our algorithm selects Nasdaq stocks based on fundamental analysis, growth indicators, and breakout strategies.

We only take long positions when there is a breakout supported by fundamental reasons, and we utilize trailing stops and profit-taking. These factors help maintain a strong risk-adjusted return while keeping volatility lower than the benchmarks.

2 trades per month on average.

e-mail alerts.

Bitcoin Pro

Portfolio Performance (since Jan/2016): 34,589% | Bitcoin Performance: 19,112%

88.2%% annual return vs 76.6% for the Bitcoin (as of Apr 02 2025).

Max -34% monthly drawdown vs -75% for the BTC.

This portfolio is structured into 3 sub-strategies, emphasizing momentum and blockchain analysis.

Much better risk adjusted return than the benchmark.

It’s possible to stay 100% in cash at some point.

E-mail alerts.

Earnings GAP Long Only

Portfolio Performance (since Jan/2023): 127.67% | S&P 500 Performance: 37.40%

Annual average return (since Jan 2023): 44.13% (as of Apr 14 2025).

Max daily drawdown: -6.29% vs -17.60% for the S&P 500.

This portfolio aims to capitalize on a stock’s GAP UP during its earnings announcement.

The approach involves taking a long position one day prior to the announcement. For instance, if a stock announces earnings after market close and we are bullish, we buy at the open on the announcement day and close the trade at the market open the following day.

We select bullish stocks based on fundamentals and an algorithm that tracks recent upgrades or downgrades.

As the holding period is just one trading session + overnight, most of the time we keep the portfolio balance in cash.

The maximum number of stocks held simultaneously in the portfolio is nine.

Please note, this strategy carries higher risk due to its short-term, speculative nature, despite its strong and positive results.

Email alerts.

Top Value and Growth Stocks

Portfolio Performance (since Jun/2024): 10.20% | S&P 500 Performance: 1.66%

This portfolio is guided by our Stocks Ranking System to identify the top value and growth stocks (weekly rebalanced).

We begin by analyzing the weekly ratio between the Russell 1000 Growth (IWF) and Value (IWD) indices to determine which category has relative strength.

If the IWF/IWD ratio is above its 50-week moving average, the portfolio allocates 70% to growth stocks and 30% to value stocks. Conversely, if the ratio is below the 50-week moving average, the allocation shifts to 70% value stocks and 30% growth stocks.

The portfolio can hold a maximum of 10 growth stocks. However, if there aren’t enough top growth stocks according to our ranking criteria, we supplement the portfolio with the IWF ETF. For example, if our criteria select only 7 growth stocks in a given week (70%), we allocate the remaining 30% to IWF to maintain a full 100% exposure.

Similarly, the portfolio can hold up to 5 value stocks. If there aren’t enough top value stocks, we use the IWD ETF to complete the allocation. Thus, the portfolio will always have a maximum of 15 stocks each week.

This strategy was initiated in June 2024, and as of Apr 14, 2025, it has returned 10.20%, compared to 1.66% for the S&P 500.

Risk Management: Depending on the output of our risk management models, we could stay in cash to minimize drawdown risk.

Top 20 Stocks Monthly

Portfolio Performance (since Mar/2024): 13.97% | S&P 500 Performance: -3.24%

This portfolio is rebalanced in the first week of each month and the stock picking is purely guided by our Stocks Ranking System as we select the TOP 20 stocks within our ranking.

The Ranking System is based on relevant criteria such as Value, Growth, Financial Health, Momentum, Future Growth, and Technical Analysis.

We started this portfolio on March 04^th 2024 and so far (as of Apr 08 2025), it has a 13.97% cumulative return vs -3.24% for the S&P 500.

Risk Management: Depending on the output of our risk management models, we could stay in cash to minimize drawdown risk.

Top Investors and i3 Ranking

Portfolio Performance (since Mar/2024): 6.38% | S&P 500 Performance: 16.57%

This portfolio is rebalanced during the first week of each month, with stock selection guided by a combination of positions held by top investors and the highest-ranked stocks in our Stocks Ranking System.

The top investors we follow for guidance include Bill Ackman, Bill Gates, Edgar Wachenheim, Michael Burry, Stanley Druckenmiller, and Warren Buffett. We analyze their 13-F quarterly filings and select the top 10 stocks, blending their favored companies with the top-performing companies identified by our ranking system.

We started this portfolio on March 04^th 2024 and so far (as of Mar 03 2025), it has a 6.4% cumulative return vs 16.6% for the S&P 500.

Risk Management: Depending on the output of our risk management models, we could stay in cash to minimize drawdown risk.

Buy The Dip

57% annualized return per trade;

1.98% return per trade on average since May/2023;

16 days holding period on average;

Our algorithm selects the stocks based on fundamentals analysis and oversold indicators (technical analysis);

Concentrate on liquid stocks;

Our email alerts are user-friendly, averaging 5 alerts per month;

Can cancel at any time.

strategies included

Nasdaq Stars

43.7% annualized return per trade;

114 closed trades since Dec/2016;

5.77% average return per trade;

56 days holding period on average;

Our algorithm selects the stocks within Nasdaq 100 index based on fundamentals analysis, growth indicators and breakout strategies;

2 trades per month on average;

e-mail alerts;

Can cancel at any time.

Smart Money Sectors ETF

19.14% annualized return per trade;

4.48% return per trade on average since Jan/2010;

The primary objective is to identify instances when corporate money, (smart money), exhibit robust buying activity within their sectors. This trend typically indicates that these entities possess superior insights compared to the average investor, making their actions significant signals for market movements;

9 trades per year on average;

The sectors (ETFs) traded are: Basic Materials (XLB), Consumer Cyclical (XLY), Consumer Defensive (XLP), Energy (XLE), Financials (XLF), Healthcare (XLV), Industrials (XLI) and Technology (XLK);

E-mail alerts;

Can cancel at any time.

Earnings GAP

This strategy aims to capitalize on a stock’s GAP UP or GAP DOWN during its earnings announcement.

The approach involves taking a long or short position one day prior to the announcement. For instance, if a stock announces earnings after market close and we are bullish, we buy at the open on the announcement day and close the trade at the market open the following day.

We select bullish or bearish stocks based on fundamentals and an algorithm that tracks recent upgrades or downgrades.

The average return per trade is 2.26% with a holding period of just one day, which, when annualized, is a remarkable result.

Long trades yield an average return of 2.77%, while short trades average 0.82%.

Since we began this strategy in January 2023 (As of Feb 10, 2025), there have been 318 trades: 74% long and 26% short.

The maximum number of stocks held overnight was nine.

For those experienced in trading options, this strategy can be even more lucrative.

Once subscribing you will have access to all historical trades.

Please note, this strategy carries higher risk due to its short-term, speculative nature, despite its strong and positive results.

Email alerts, and you can cancel at any time.

risk management

Risk On / Risk Off Main Model

The Risk On/Risk Off model is a proprietary system divided into fundamental/macro analysis, momentum, breadth, and market sentiment components. It functions as a binary indicator, signaling either “Risk On” or “Risk Off.”

The model has demonstrated high accuracy, with historical annualized returns for the Nasdaq 100 of 32.83% during “Risk On” periods. Conversely, if you short Nasdaq 100 during “Risk Off” periods, the annualized return is 12.5%.

Since 2008, the model has been in “Risk On” mode 70% of the time and in “Risk Off” mode 30% of the time, and the cumulative return of the model is 3403% vs 843% for the Nasdaq 100 (as of Mar 17 2025).

It’s worth mentioning that we already use this model as part of our quantitative portfolio (around 15% of the portfolio is based on this model).

Whenever there is a change between risk on or risk off an email alert will be sent.

Momentum Models

Monthly Momentum: This model is purely based on the price action of the S&P 500. It generates signals based on whether the index is above a combination of levels determined by monthly and weekly moving averages, with the monthly average serving as the primary validation.

Since January 1929, the model’s cumulative performance is 91,546%, compared to 24,424% for the S&P 500 (as of Feb 28 2025).

In terms of risk management, this model also demonstrates a strong ability to avoid deeper drawdowns. On average, the model’s drawdown during significant bear markets or crash is -14%, compared to -42% for the S&P 500.

Weekly Momentum: This model is purely based on the price action of the S&P 500. It generates signals based on whether the index is above a combination of levels determined by weekly and daily moving averages, with the weekly average serving as the primary validation.

Since December 1928, the model’s cumulative performance is 151,852%, compared to 25,112% for the S&P 500 (as of Mar 17 2025).

In terms of risk management, this model also demonstrates a strong ability to avoid deeper drawdowns, with drawdowns being three times lower on average.

*Both models’ performances include the cumulative performance of investing in cash (TBIL) whenever the model is in risk-off mode.

Yield Curve Model

The first step in this model’s validation process is to wait for the yield curve to become at least X% inverted, followed by an un-inversion to X%.

Once this un-inversion occurs, we rely on price action and technical analysis to confirm a risk-off scenario.

The model is divided into two subcategories: first, we validate price action on a higher timeframe, such as the monthly chart, and then on a lower timeframe, like the daily chart.

Monthly timeframe category stats:

Since 1960:

18 instances

Average SPX return = -3.07%

Annualized SPX return = -6.90%

Average Max Drawdown = -15.93%

Daily timeframe category stats:

Since 1960:

37 instances

Average SPX return = -2.58%

Annualized SPX return = -16.55%

Average Max Drawdown = -9.44%

An email alert will be sent when the signal triggers.

The model is included in the $42/$99 package

High Yield and Volatility Model

This is a rare but powerful risk management model based on the combination of High Yield spreads and volatility. It utilizes the High Bond/High Yield ratio in conjunction with the Volatility Index (VIX) and Credit Default Swaps (CDS) to assess the probability of a spike in spreads (risk-off) and, consequently, a potential downside movement in stocks.

Since 2006, this signal has been triggered only 12 times. When shorting the S&P 500 (SPX), the average return was 2.78% over 16 days, which, when annualized, equates to 83%.

Notable instances include:

Subprime Crisis (Sep 18 – Oct 22, 2008): The SPX dropped 18% during this period.
COVID-19 Pandemic (Feb 26 – Mar 27, 2020): The SPX declined 16% during this period.

As you can see, this model is designed to detect significant increases in volatility and spikes in credit spreads. While these events are rare, having a tool that can help navigate such scenarios is crucial when the time comes.

An email alert will be sent when the signal triggers.

i3 US Equities Oscillator

This is an oscillator based on the combination of multiple indicators that we believe are the most relevant for top/bottom picking and offer an interesting risk-reward entry point.

Some are well-known indicators such as the Equity PUT/CALL ratio, others are 100% proprietary.

The list of indicators includes some relevant ones, such as:

CNN fear/greed index
Equity PUT/CALL ratio
% Stocks Above RSI(14) 70 level
Institutional vs Retail Investors Spread in Positioning and Sentiment
Credit Spreads
Volatility

We divided the oscillator into 3 ranges and provided the historical annualized returns as well as the percentage of time spent in each range.

Below 1.2 = STRONG BUY (annualized return = 33.4%, 11.1% of the time in the zone)

Between 1.2 and 3.6 = NEUTRAL (annualized return = 8.84%, 78.9% of the time in the zone)

Between 3.6 and 3.8 = RISK (annualized return = -0.57%, 4.75% of the time in the zone)

Above 3.8 = EXTREME RISK annualized return = -12.22%, 6.06% of the time in the zone)

The oscillator is updated every day before 8:30 AM EST, and an e-mail alert will be sent whenever the oscillator reaches extreme levels such as: “strong buy”, “risk” and “extreme risk”.

Major Bottom Monthly Oscillator

The Major Bottom Oscillator is similar to the US Equities Oscillator but places more emphasis on sentiment and allocation.

Another key difference is that this oscillator only generates a “buy” signal when it reaches extreme levels below the 0.7 mark, indicating a long position in the S&P 500 for 1 month.

Since 2000, it has triggered a buy signal in 25 months, with an average 1-month holding return of 2.57%, which is more than 3.6 times the average monthly return for all months.

i3 Master Sniper Oscillator

This oscillator is named “sniper” because of its high level of accuracy and also because isn’t so frequent of triggering a buy or sell signal.

Since 1963 there were 146 occasions that the signal was triggered (long and short).

The long trades were positive 80% of the time, with 1-month holding average return of 2.75%, which when annualized equates to 38.5%.

The short trades were positive 59% of the time, with 2-week holding average return of 0.9%, which when annualized equates to 25.91%.

About the oscillator:

1.Breadth and Momentum-Based Oscillator:

Evaluates market sentiment by comparing the number of stocks reaching extreme price levels (such as highs or lows) within a defined time period. It measures whether the majority of stocks are participating in an upward or downward movement. When the index signals a high reading, it suggests widespread bullish momentum, while low readings can indicate bearish sentiment or a potential reversal. Traders often use it to identify overbought or oversold conditions, giving insight into potential turning points in the market.

2.Intermarket Relationship Ratio:

This measure compares the performance of equities to another major asset class, typically considered more stable or defensive. By analyzing the ratio of these two, it provides a sense of risk appetite among investors. When the ratio rises, it indicates a preference for higher-risk, growth-oriented assets, while a decline suggests a shift toward safety and caution. This indicator is particularly useful for understanding market cycles and predicting shifts in economic sentiment.

An email alert will be sent whenever a new signal is triggered.

i3 Pullback Sniper Oscillator

This oscillator is also called the ‘Sniper’ because of its high level of accuracy, although it triggers more frequently than the Master Sniper. The Pullback Sniper is set to trigger only when:

1-Long S&P 500 when the index is in an upward trend (above 100 day moving average). Short S&P 500 when the index is in a downward trend (below 100 day moving average).

2-A buy or sell signal is generated through a combination of indicators that are also part of the i3 US Equities Oscillator and the Master Sniper Oscillator. Most of these indicators are related to price overbought/oversold conditions, market breadth, positioning, and sentiment, but for this specific oscillator with a focus on shorter timeframes.

Since 2003 there were 91 occasions that the signal was triggered (75 long and 16 short).

The long trades were positive 66% of the time, with 2-week holding average return of 1.23%, which when annualized equates to 36.94%. By using 3x long leverage SPX ETF the annualized return is 111%.

The short trades were positive 63% of the time, with 1-week holding average return of 0.97%, which when annualized equates to 64.3%.

Even when positioned only 14% of the time, the cumulative returns from trading the 3x leveraged SPX ETFs are three times higher than those from buying and holding the SPX, as of Jan 16, 2025.

An email alert will be sent whenever a new signal is triggered.

indicators / research

The 7 Essential Indicators

We have identified 7 essential indicators that we believe are crucial for decision-making in the financial markets.

Two of these indicators are 100% proprietary:

Small Speculators vs. Large Investors Options Spread Allocation
SPX/High Yield Spread Weekly Slope

The remaining five indicators are well-known, but we have adapted them based on our expertise to determine when to trigger a long equities position or shift to cash.

Below are the five adapted indicators:

NYSE – New Highs vs. New Lows Cumulative Index
High Yield Bond A/D Index MA Cross
Credit Default Swap – Long Equities / Cash
NYSE – Advance/Decline Issues
US Equities Industries Above 200 DMA

Whenever there is a change in any indicator’s signal, an email alert will be sent.

Complementary Indicators

1 – Copper/Gold Ratio Relative Ranking:

The Copper/Gold ratio is often seen as a leading indicator of economic strength, as copper is heavily tied to industrial demand, while gold is typically a safe-haven asset.

The relative ranking of this ratio (not the ratio per se) provides insight into market trends, it signals stronger economic momentum, historically leading to higher returns in sectors tied to the real economy, such as Industrials (XLI) and Materials (XLB).

Our proprietary indicator is divided into two levels (level 1 and level 2).

Annualized return (XLI + XLB) when in level 1 = 22.65%. (48% of the time since 2005).

Annualized return (XLI + XLB) when in level 2 = 3.54%. (52% of the time since 2005).

As you can see, it is a much smarter move to go long on XLI and XLB only when the indicator is at Level 1.

2- Growth vs Value Slope Relative Strength

This indicator analyzes the relative strength and slope of a combination of daily moving averages for the IWF (growth) / IWD (value) ratio—one of the most effective “intermarket” relationships for assessing risk-on vs. risk-off conditions.

When the slope is rising, consider buying $QQQ (Nasdaq 100), as it is highly correlated with growth. When the slope is declining, shifting to cash is advisable.

Since August 2000, this indicator has delivered an annualized return of 12.41%, compared to 7.67% for the Nasdaq 100.

The slope is positive approximately 54% of the time.

3- US Reverse Repo and China Liquidity Injection as leading indicators for Bitcoin and Nasdaq 100

i3 Stocks Ranking System

We have developed a Ranking System based on relevant criteria such as Value, Growth, Financial Health, Momentum, Future Growth, and Technical Analysis.

We analyze around 2,000 companies, enabling you to easily identify their ranking based on percentiles.

Additionally, we divide the ranking into subgroups of Growth, Value, and Dividend, providing the most important indicators/ratios that matter most for these categories.

A clear manual is provided upon subscribing, teaching you how to make the most of our ranking.

You will have access to all of this in your membership research area, updated every Monday before 09 AM EST.

Weekly Macro Report

Every Monday, you will receive a macro report divided into three parts, each containing relevant information. The structure of the report is as follows:

1. Summary of the Main Events
a. A recap of the previous week’s main events and their impact on the markets.
b. Key events for the upcoming week, including economic data releases and the earnings calendar.

2. Top Charts Posted on X During the Previous Week
This section dives deeper into the most relevant charts I posted during the previous week. For instance, in one report, I explained the “blood indicator” (T-bill/High Yield Spread ratio) and its primary impact on the market. This way, you can clearly understand the ideas behind the charts.

3. Market Insights
a. S&P 500 price action analysis
b. S&P 500 current valuation (CAPE ratio)
c. i3 Risk On/Off model
d. i3 Top Stocks (90th percentile) reaching a 52-week high price
e. Recent upgrades by brokers – Stocks within the 90th percentile in our ranking
f. Macro Chart of the Week: A relevant chart of any asset class that deserves our attention.

4. Conclusion

Equity Reports

You will receive on demand reports on companies that we consider relevant.

These reports offer straight-to-the-point research, providing relevant information covering both fundamental and technical analysis — helping you focus on what truly matters.

Additionally, we provide a trade idea with target price/stop loss, and indicate the percentile in which each company falls based on our ranking system.

It’s also possible to present reports on specific asset classes like Gold, Copper, Silver, and many others depending on their relevance or investment/trading opportunities, even though the primary focus is on equities.

Risk Management: Depending on the output of our risk management models, we may either suspend bullish reports or issue bearish ones.

“Success in trading demands the discipline to follow a proven strategy, the courage to manage risk ruthlessly, and the patience to let winners run.”

— Inspired by Jesse Livermore